5G May Be Mobile’s Shiny New Thing, but There is Plenty of Innovation to Come from 4G Networks
Excitement about 5G is starting to dominate the agenda in the mobile industry, as we near the first phase of 5G standardisation. But it’s important not to lose sight of how much potential remains in 4G mobile networks, for meeting the current and future demands of both consumers and businesses.
There are three main areas in which 5G promises benefits:
- Faster data rates and higher capacity
- Expansion of the internet of things (IoT)
- Lower latency
Operators do not need to wait for 5G to take these things forward. In all three areas, operators can deliver major improvements immediately, by investing in the development of their 4G networks.
Faster data rates and high capacity in 4G networks
Today in London’s Wembley Stadium, EE, Sony and Qualcomm jointly hosted an event demonstrating that we do not need to wait for 5G, to get gigabit speeds on mobile. In fact, we do not need to wait at all. By combining three 4G technology upgrades (carrier aggregation, 4 x 4 MIMO and 256 QAM), EE showed peak download data rates around 750Mbit/s on its live commercial network. In lab conditions, using the same technologies, download rates of almost 1Gbit/s have been achieved. Earlier this year, the Australian operator Telstra demonstrated download speeds in the 1Gbit/s range, but in that case the access device was a router. EE’s Wembley demo used a smartphone as the access device (Sony’s Xperia XZ Premium).
Given sufficient spectrum, there is still more scope to increase the data rates that 4G networks can achieve using these upgrade technologies, and it’s likely that in the next few years we will see peak download rates well in excess of 1Gbit/s well before the advent of 5G.
IoT expansion in 4G networks
Operators can expand the scale and scope of IoT on their 4G networks by applying specialized upgrades: NB-IoT (narrowband IoT) and LTE-M (LTE-machine). By reducing the power consumption and signaling activity of connected devices, these upgrades can enable 4G networks to support connection densities in the range of 50,000-60,000 devices per cell, to improve coverage in enclosed and underground locations such as water mains, and to connect devices such as sensors that can operate for years on a single battery charge.
Vodafone brought the first commercial NB-IoT application to market, a smart metering solution for the Spanish water utility Aguas de Valencia. Other large European operators are embracing NB-IoT too, notably Deutsche Telekom, which announced nationwide NB-IoT coverage in The Netherlands at the end of May 2017, and its first commercial NB-IoT services packages in Germany in June 2017. LTE-M, has mainly been adopted outside Europe, but a major exception emerged in February 2017 when Orange announced its plan to roll out LTE-M on its 4G networks in Belgium and Spain, and eventually in other operating markets too.
Low latency in 4G networks
5G networks promise latency below 10ms, making them much more responsive than today’s mobile networks, and enabling applications such as multi-player gaming, connected virtual reality (VR) and remote command & control. But there is scope to improve latency in 4G networks, by using newly standardized technology known as multi-access edge computing (MEC). In a MEC-enabled network, compute and storage resources are sited at the cellular base stations, enabling faster delivery of content to end users, and shorter paths between the network’s data processing resources and the end points that use them.
Demonstrations are already showing the kind of improvements that MEC on 4G networks can deliver. For example, at its Innovation Week in June 2017, BT teamed with Saguna to show the application of MEC to industrial automation, in a demonstration involving drones collecting and loading packages in a dispatch warehouse. Because global position service (GPS) is not available indoors, the drones must communicate their locations constantly with the central controller to carry out their tasks, and with each other to avoid colliding as they do so. In the demo, the drones were connected to a 4G base station, and a MEC server steered their communications directly to the control application rather than to BT’s backhaul and core network. This enabled them to co-ordinate their movements and avoid colliding even when working in close proximity with each other.
Specialisation of 4G networks
In addition to the improvements in general performance that can be achieved by upgrading 4G networks, 4G performance can also be improved for specific use cases via specialized upgrades. Important ones include:
- LTE-B (Broadcast), enabling a single stream of data to be consumed simultaneously by multiple devices
- LTE-V2X (Vehicle-to-“everything”), using the 4G network for specialized communication between vehicles and other vehicles, road infrastructure, pedestrians and the network.
- LTE-R (Railway), an adaptation of 4G for use as a communications network by railway operators, meeting needs that are specific to that industry such as support for high-speed mobility and safety-critical reliability.
If you want to learn more about this topic, or have any question on European Mobility, please contact John Delaney.
Insights From Infosec 2017: Aims of Unified Security Signal the Start of the Security Platform Wars
For European security professionals, when the calendar flips over to June it can mean only one thing – Infosec – and as usual IDC attended in force.
Although not on the same scale as San Francisco’s annual RSA security conference, with some 360 exhibitors present it can be tough to pick out consistent themes from all the noise. However, there were some common threads to be drawn.
Unsurprisingly, the most commonly referenced topic at Infosec was GDPR. Any number of vendors would have you believe that they can help to achieve GDPR compliance (or support readiness), to varying degrees of relevance and success. But with that topic already covered extensively, including on this blog, it seems appropriate to take another perspective.
The other common theme I encountered at Infosec was a topic that the market cannot agree on a term for. It is variously referred to as unified security, integrated security, platform security, and many other names besides. Exemplars of unified security include FireEye’s Helix, Fortinet’s Fabric OS, Sophos’ Synchronised Security and Symantec’s Integrated Cyber Defence. See IDC’s European reporting on the topic (here and here) for more detailed explanation and insight.
Just what do we mean by unified security? Broadly speaking, these are platform solutions that allow enterprises to more easily manage and/or integrate the various products that make up their security environment. They come in two major categories: as a foundation, they foster integration within a single provider’s portfolio. At the next level, they also facilitate integration between various third party products. Critically, unified security vendors need to embrace the concept of open integration and APIs to maximise buy in from as broad a base as possible. For example, Symantec’s platform approach offers 100 integrations ‘out the gate’.
The reason why unified security is interesting is because it is a rare example of a security topic becoming prominent due to customer demand. This is in contrast with the usual cycle, where solutions come to market on the back of either the evolving threat landscape (e.g. ransomware) or developments in technology (e.g. next generation endpoint).
Unified security is on the rise precisely because of the problems caused by the threat- and technology-led nature of security product development. Incremental add-ons and product releases have contributed to security product estates becoming so complex as to be unmanageable. Indeed, some CISOs now regard their security estate as a risk itself, due to the lack of integration and visibility a multi-product environment creates. In response, enterprises seek solutions to cut through this complexity.
While there has long been anecdotal evidence of this trend, IDC now has a data-point to back up this claim. According to IDC’s 2017 Western European security survey, this is becoming a critical factor in European product selection. Roughly one third of respondents make spending decisions based on how well a product integrates with other products in their existing environment (which also lets them retire products, or consolidate vendors). For comparison, one third select products based on price, and the final third on technical capability.
We’ll soon be releasing a report that will provide further insight into IDC’s recent European security survey, watch this space! In the meanwhile, look out for vendors seeking to position themselves as ‘strategic security partners’ or ‘security platform of choice’. This will signal that the starting gun has been fired on the battle for unified security supremacy.
If you want to learn more about this topic and other related European Security trends, please contact Dominic Trott.
Top Market Trends for IoT Adoption in Healthcare
IDC expects that much of the Internet of Things (IoT) potential to empower hospitals, other healthcare providers and patients in their decision making will materialize in the next few years, and it will be driven by major developments in IoT platforms and advanced analytics.
With these tools, the vast amount of data generated by endpoints can be gathered, analysed and turned into clinical value. IoT platforms are evolving rapidly, and their architecture is becoming increasingly sophisticated. At a basic level, these products connect devices, collect and manage vast amounts of data, and expose new insights to healthcare providers' backend systems or to third parties. Their ability to support the development of new applications that can underpin better and faster decision making is crucial.
IoT in healthcare has been developed mainly to target a single area of the hospital, and data is not yet aggregated and reused to support new use cases. Overall, hospitals' use of IoT can be divided into four main areas:
- Logistics
- Building management
- Clinical care
- Telemedicine
The adoption of use cases in each of the main areas leans heavily towards logistics and building management, accounting for 64% of the main adopted use cases. Clinical care accounts for 19% and telemedicine has an adoption percentage of only 16%. It is obvious that IoT has not yet gained the necessary clinical traction nor had the impact on the hospitals' core capabilities (treatment and care). IDC survey data from 2016, however, indicates that clinical care and telemedicine are growing.
Healthcare providers should consider several areas before investing in an enterprisewide IoT platform.
- Integrate IoT solutions within the rest of the ICT infrastructure inside the hospital using a modular and incremental approach. It is the IoT platform that will communicate and integrate with other digital transformation initiatives such as mobility, cloud and Big Data. Having a purpose-built platform in an ivory tower will not help hospitals in the long run — it will only create a silo that will need to be dismantled at some point.
- The openness of the architecture of an IoT platform. Sensor independence is extremely important, so healthcare providers should be ready to invest in their IoT infrastructures and platforms to add new technologies and sensors when they are needed.
ICT vendors have several opportunities in the IoT platform space in healthcare, as a sensor manufacturer, systems integrator or application developer. There are some recommendations that are common for all vendors and should be considered before engaging with the IoT healthcare market:
- Partnerships between vendors across the IoT architecture are important for success. Vendors should identify the right partners and create an ecosystem of solutions and technologies that hospitals and other healthcare providers can adopt.
- Start small, think big. Most hospitals cannot afford to invest in an enterprisewide IoT infrastructure for RFID. ICT vendors should therefore address single use cases, but prepare the value proposition for expansion across logistics, building management, clinical care and telemedicine. ICT vendors should target clinical leadership, logistics management (depending on use cases), CIOs and top-level executives in the hospital with go-to-market initiatives.
Read more: For more insights, see IDC Health Insights' new study IoT Platforms in Healthcare — Market Trends and 2020 Roadmap. Click here for more information or e-mail us at insightseurope@idc.com
What Does Brexit Mean for the Financial Services Industry?
Yesterday’s election may have resulted in the worst possible outcome as it will extend the period of uncertainty given that all options — “hard Brexit,” “soft Brexit,” “no Brexit” — remain on the table.
Taking stock this morning, however, the UK is headed into the most difficult negotiations in decades, with a hung parliament, a damaged prime minister, no majority, and a dramatically weakened bargaining position for the Brexit negotiations. On the positive side, this general election shows highest voter turnout since 1997, particularly among the 18–24 age group.
One thing is clear: this is not the strong mandate that Prime Minister Theresa May had hoped to gain to help her strengthen the U.K.’s position in the upcoming Brexit talks. It is clear that the fear of terrorism and May’s tainted track record from her time in the Home Office, in combination with a weak campaign strategy and a series of tactical errors (pensions, healthcare), were the main reasons for the Conservatives losing their majority — more so than the question of Brexit. This is also seen in the poor results for the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the UK Independence Party (UKIP), both parties building their campaign around Brexit. On the other hand, the high turnout of younger voters, who failed to make their mark in the EU referendum a year ago and were disappointed by its outcome, speaks loudly against the hard Brexit plans of the May administration.
Who Will Lead the Government?
So, what is the bottom line after the election? Uncertainty. A number of options are on the table when it comes to who will lead the next government into the difficult divorce negotiations with the EU. The Conservatives, without question, have been hit hard, losing their majority in parliament and likely facing a heated discussion over the future leadership of the party. Likely May will step down quickly or face an extended period where her position is challenged internally and externally. However, as long as May holds on, she will remain in office as the incumbent prime minister of a hung parliament. There is also the question of who would replace her if she were to resign or be ousted. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Home Secretary Amber Rudd would be the frontrunners, but there would be others.
It all boils down to a loosely formulated “confidence-and-supply” arrangement between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This is clearly not the most stable option, given a slim majority of three seats with one still to be determined at the time of writing this blog. The alternative of a “rainbow coalition” under Labour with the SNP and the Liberal Democrats — which would still fall short of a majority — is even less appealing. Either way, there would be a lack of stability for any future government in the immediate term.
What Impact Will This Have on the Brexit Negotiations?
It now looks increasingly unlikely that the Brexit negotiations will be concluded within the two-year timeframe set out after Article 50 was invoked on March 29, 2017 — even more so now that hardliners in all parties have gained greater bargaining power to push their agendas.
This could increase the likelihood of a soft Brexit, a no Brexit, or a delayed Brexit. The latter is probably more likely if the sides fail to come to an agreement within the two years, which would result in an extended timeline. This, however, would come at a cost, as EU leaders would not be likely to give ground here easily. However, for many, a “no deal” is not an option, as it would come at a huge cost to the economies on both sides of the Channel. The U.K. would arguably be worse off if it came to a showdown, but even under a strong Conservative government a hard Brexit was likely never more than a political move to strengthen their position in the negotiations and win over UKIP supporters.
With the Conservatives taking the majority of votes, Brexit will remain the direction forward and it will be interesting to see how the internal balance shifts when every vote counts. A Conservative/DUP coalition will likely result in a soft Brexit, given that the DUP has no interest in a hard border with Ireland, but has strongly supported the Brexit campaign. Nonetheless the majority of Northern Irelands voters opposed the Brexit in the referendum, so it’s likely the DUP will seek concessions on the border question without recognizing a special status for Northern Ireland, which was proposed by its key competitor and former enemy Sinn Fein. This highlights the complexity of Northern Ireland’s situation and the DUP’s role as king maker. Two Irish euro-sceptic parties win in a pro-European region driven by political agendas that are still rooted deeply in the past. Add a deeply split conservative party to the mix, where supporters of a hard and soft Brexit will try to leverage the narrow majority in parliament to drive their agenda and you end up in a situation that will be a very difficult balancing act for the next prime minister.g
On the other hand, Labour has also accepted that Brexit will happen and this is unlikely to change based on early comments from Jeremy Corbyn this morning. With the Labour leadership having been clear about accepting the verdict of last year’s referendum, it would be a huge surprise if Corbyn changed his basic position. That position has never extended to seeking membership of the single market, with Corbyn generally emphasizing access to the single market rather than membership. In this sense, the Labour position is not too dissimilar to the Conservative one.
This makes the “no Brexit” option unlikely, although in Continental Europe there are still hopes that the U.K. can remain in the EU. Abandoning Brexit would be the result of a coalition government failing to determine a clear course of action and a combination of fading political will, public disinterest, complexity, slow progress, and a better understanding of the cost resulting in political compromise that would allow both sides to keep face. An EU27.5 maybe.
The most likely option is a delayed Brexit given that the clock is ticking down to March 2019. This period of uncertainty will come at a cost as investments are likely to be put off and immigration into the U.K. will remain low, while a growing number of EU residents head home. Over time this clearly will hamper the growth of the U.K. economy, which at least for now is powered by the low pound and thriving exports.
What Does This Mean for the Financial Services Sector?
Likewise, decisions on if and when financial institutions will move staff out of the City and toward Frankfurt, Paris, or Dublin will remain on hold and, in the case of a soft Brexit, are unlikely to crystallize. In the meantime, it’s business as usual in the City and London will remain the center of Europe’s financial services industry. Its unique competitive positioning, progressive regulation, and a buoyant fintech sector have lost little appeal to the financial sector. We don’t expect any major changes and decisions to be made until there is clarity on where the journey is heading.
Given all this, there is still a possibility of yet another general election in the U.K. It is therefore fairly safe to predict that it will be the next election rather than yesterday’s election that shapes the eventual Brexit settlement.
If you want to learn more about financial trends, please contact Thomas Zink